Crypto Market Report: Mid-June 2025

Greed isn’t usually praised, yet in crypto it’s a welcome signal: the Fear & Greed Index has climbed to around 70, reflecting a decidedly bold market mood. Bitcoin’s market dominance sits at a commanding 60% and it’s backed by performance, with the price up 3.3% in June so far. Ethereum rounded off May with its first green monthly candle of the year, surging 40% and has added another 10% since June kicked off. 

In this edition of the Crypto Market Monitor, we bring you the must-knows: macro factors, a peek into Bitcoin’s exchange flows, DeFi’s standout performance and the latest news on what’s happening with the convergence of crypto and traditional capital markets. Let’s get started. 

The latest US inflation data for May has given markets a reason to breathe easier. Headline CPI rose just 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2% while core CPI surprised even more, coming in at 0.1% versus the forecasted 0.3%. In short, inflation cooled more than expected. That’s good news for risk assets, as it takes some pressure off the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. 

Markets responded accordingly. The S&P 500 ticked up by 20 basis points, while Bitcoin jumped 0.6%, briefly pushing past the $110K mark. The softer CPI print also boosted hopes of potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, provided there are no major inflationary shocks in the future. That said, tariff-related risks, especially those tied to Trump-era trade policies, still loom large and could muddy the picture in future reports. 

For crypto, lower inflation tends to be a tailwind. It supports assets like Bitcoin by reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes. But while the CPI numbers are encouraging, broader policy uncertainties could still keep bullish momentum in check. 

A look at Bitcoin exchange flows over the past six months reveals a clear and compelling trend: when Bitcoin moves off exchanges, prices tend to rise. The data shows a strong negative correlation of –0.6052 between net exchange flows and price suggesting that sustained outflows are often followed by upward price momentum. 

Over the past 30 days, daily outflows averaged over 72K BTC, while Bitcoin climbed 4.4%. This pattern reinforces the idea that steady withdrawals from exchanges can act as a bullish signal, hinting at investor confidence and reduced short-term selling pressure. 

Figure 1: Bitcoin’s net exchange flows  

Source: AMINA Bank, Glassnode (12 June 2025) 

The scatter plot below captures this relationship visually, plotting daily net exchange flows against Bitcoin prices. The dashed trendline (an ordinary least squares regression) shows the average expected price based on flow activity. Its downward slope confirms the inverse relationship: larger outflows typically align with higher prices, and inflows with lower ones. 

While exchange flows alone don’t explain every market move, they remain a valuable contrarian signal for anticipating Bitcoin price actionpa, rticularly when other market indicators are mixed. 

Figure 2:  For Bitcoin, larger exchange outflows have coincided with higher prices and larger inflows with lower prices 

Source: AMINA Bank, Glassnode (12 June 2025) 

DeFi tokens surged this week after encouraging signals from none other than the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In a roundtable hosted at the SEC’s Washington headquarters, Chair Paul Atkins hinted at the possibility of regulatory exemptions that could allow US-based DeFi firms to operate with fewer constraints. Markets responded swiftly. Blue-chip tokens UNI and AAVE each jumped 20% following the remarks. 

Zooming out, the DeFi sector has been on a strong run over the past three months. Aave’s AAVE token is up an impressive 74%, while Uniswap’s UNI climbed 38%. Meanwhile, the total market capitalisation of leading DeFi tokens (AAVE, UNI, MKR, BAL, SNX, CRV, COMP and SUSHI) has swelled to $11.41 billion, marking a 25.4% increase in just 90 days. 

With regulatory clarity finally starting to take shape and investor confidence rebounding, DeFi appears to be regaining its edge in the broader crypto landscape. 

Figure 3: DeFi has been a standout sector over the past three months.  

Source: AMINA Bank, Glassnode (12 June 2025) 

Prominent industry voices including Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, Uniswap’s Hayden Adams, and Aptos CEO Avery Ching have welcomed the SEC’s recent efforts to foster a more supportive environment for DeFi innovation in the US. The DeFi roundtable, hosted by the SEC, has sparked cautious optimism across the crypto space. While the tone has clearly shifted towards dialogue and flexibility, particularly with the prospect of an innovation exemption on the table, the industry is still in a wait-and-see mode. All eyes are now on the SEC’s next move, with hopes pinned on clearer, more consistent regulation that can support long-term growth without stifling experimentation. 

The past week has marked a turning point in the ongoing convergence of traditional finance and the crypto industry. Circle’s blockbuster NYSE debut on 5 June 2025 raised $1.1 billion at $31 per share, with the stock soaring 168% on day one. This was a clear sign of institutional appetite for compliant, crypto-native infrastructure. Just days earlier, on 2 June, Robinhood completed its $200 million acquisition of Bitstamp, gaining access to over 50 regulatory licences and positioning itself to serve both retail and institutional crypto clients globally. And on 11 June, Stripe deepened its crypto presence by acquiring wallet provider Privy, a move that strengthens its ability to offer seamless blockchain integration across mainstream applications. 

These are not isolated moves, they’re the latest in a multi-year trend that began with bold corporate bets on Bitcoin. From MicroStrategy’s headline-grabbing BTC strategy back in August 2020 to the growing embrace of digital assets by asset managers, banks and now web2 giants, crypto is steadily evolving from a speculative frontier to foundational financial infrastructure. 

This convergence is a reflection of two key forces: increasing regulatory clarity and growing institutional recognition of crypto’s role in the future of finance. What’s emerging is a more efficient, transparent and globally connected system – one that’s starting to look less like an alternative, and more like the future of financial markets. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s recent rallies, buoyed by encouraging inflation data and positive exchange flows, coincide with a broader resurgence in DeFi amid improving regulatory clarity, all pointing to a market coming of age. Regulatory greenlights like Dubai’s approval of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin are accelerating adoption, and major capital market moves such as Circle’s blockbuster IPO, Robinhood’s Bitstamp acquisition and Stripe’s partnership with Privy underscore the convergence of old and new finance.  

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the macro stage: from the US FOMC meeting next week on 17-18 June, to the Trump administration’s looming tariff policy deadline. Yet the common thread in all these developments is unmistakable: crypto is cementing itself as an integral part of global financial infrastructure.  

Disclaimer – Research 

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